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The Global Shale Race Is Officially On

The United States has become the oil and gas supplier of last resort for many importers amid the Middle East crisis. The reason it could become the supplier of last resort was shale, so the question naturally arises whether the U.S. shale revolution could be repeated in other parts of the world. Unfortunately, the answer is "Not likely." Wood Mackenzie recently reported on the main advantages of the U.S. shale oil and gas industry and why it would be difficult to replicate its success in other jurisdictions. Among these advantages, Wood Mac's experts listed an industry made up of hundreds of small players willing to bet everything on getting a piece of the shale pie and the fast development of hydraulic fracturing technology, along with a well-developed infrastructure, "access to capital, liquid M&A markets and a relatively favourable fiscal regime." Those small ...

Political and Economic Shifts Cause Massive 42% Clean Energy Slump

The world's largest two economies, the United States and China, are both majorly cooling off on investments in clean energy manufacturing, but for very different reasons. In China, the decline in investing from peak levels in 2023 reflects a market correction after years of oversupply and a slowdown in economic growth. In the United States, the trend comes as a reflection of shifting policy priorities and the private sector's reaction to political uncertainty in the Trump era. The result is a slowdown in clean energy manufacturing investing on a global level at a time when energy diversification and decarbonization has never been more urgent. A new Rhodium Group report shows that, on a global level, investment in clean technology manufacturing has dropped a whopping 42 percent since their peak in 2023, reaching $155 billion in 2025. China alone has seen a ...

Crude oil is going the long way around the world as countries scramble to plug Hormuz supply hole

Crude oil and vital crude products such as gasoline and diesel are taking the long way to their destinations, as the near-standstill at the Strait of Hormuz has forced countries to meet their energy needs via routes that were relatively quiet only a few months ago. Tanker and dry-bulk-vessel traffic around Africa's Cape of Good Hope is about 20% higher, as measured by vessel capacity, than before the U.S. and Israel launched the war with Iran at the end of February. It reached a record high in mid-April. Tanker traffic through the Panama Canal is also increasing, hitting the highest level in at least five years in late March. These routes represent imperfect solutions, but they are workarounds that countries and companies are embracing as they go elsewhere to procure their crude, refined products and other commodities to replace at least some of ...

Benchmark diesel down, futures market starts to tick upward

The benchmark price of diesel used for most fuel surcharges fell for the second straight week against a backdrop of relative overall stability in futures prices even as intra-day swings can be volatile. The Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration average weekly retail diesel price fell 4.3 cents/gallon to $5.596/g. It's the second consecutive weekly decline, though the prior week's drop was just 0.1 cts/g. The latest DOE/EIA number puts it just 1.2 cts/g more than where it was on April 13. But since that time, the weekly price moves were down 20.5 cts/g, down 5.2 cts/g, then an increase of 28.9 cts/g before last week's minuscule decline. All that means that buyers are paying about the same as they were five weeks ago, but the path there has been anything but consistent. At approximately 12:30 p.m. Tuesday, ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on ...

NATO Is Starting to Consider Hormuz Mission

NATO is discussing the possibility of helping ships pass through the blocked Strait of Hormuz if the waterway isn't reopened by early July, according to a senior official in the military alliance. The idea has support from several members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but doesn't yet have the necessary unanimous support, said a diplomat from a NATO country. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity. Leaders from NATO countries will meet in Ankara July 7-8. "The political direction comes first, and then the formal planning happens after that," said Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's supreme allied commander Europe, when asked about the possibility at a Tuesday press conference. "Am I thinking about it? Absolutely." Such a move would represent a shift in the military alliance's strategy toward the US-Israeli war in Iran. Thus far, allies have insisted they would only be involved ...

Europe Energy Security Challenges: Warnings of Imminent Crude and Diesel Supply Shortages

The European Commission faces mounting systemic pressure to secure regional markets' petroleum product requirements following alarming technical briefs published by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The complex Europe energy security challenges dominate recent debates among bloc finance ministers due to the rapid erosion of strategic stockpiles across member states. Financial analysts warn that maintaining current consumption rates without neutralizing supply deficits will trigger an absolute shortage of refined derivatives like diesel and jet fuel within weeks, directly undermining the stability of transcontinental logistical networks. Maritime Transit Disruptions and Rising Commercial Inventory Carrying Costs This structural deficit correlates with complex geopolitical developments that have obstructed oil tanker transits through historical sea lanes, forcing merchant fleets to utilize prolonged, cost-intensive alternative routes. Refineries inside the continent are facing compromised operational capacities due to a lack of light sweet crude, the primary feedstock for manufacturing ...

Can Middle East Oil Producers Meaningfully Bypass the Strait?

Can Middle East oil producers meaningfully bypass the Strait of Hormuz? According to Chris Newton, a Senior Early Warning Analyst at the International Crisis Group, "some of them can". "In theory, three alternative pipelines across Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Iraq are capable of accommodating approximately half of what typically crossed through Hormuz (albeit at elevated prices)," Newton told Rigzone. He warned, however, that these too are vulnerable to attack, blocked sea lanes, and domestic politics. Newton highlighted that Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline can carry up to seven million barrels per day across the kingdom to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. From here, up to five million barrels per day can be made available for export, he pointed out. "Though the pipeline is buried, the production facilities feeding it, the pumping stations along it, and the terminal facilities at its end ...

Oil prices slip as Trump calls off planned military strike on Iran

International benchmark Brent crude dropped 1.33% to trade at $110.61 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures (WTI) fell 0.91% to $103.43 per barrel as investors digested the latest comments from Donald Trump. The US President said he was postponing a planned attack on Iran scheduled for Tuesday at the request of Gulf leaders amid "serious negotiations" with Tehran, easing crude supply concerns among market watchers. Trump's sudden announcement on social media on Monday came after Iran said it had responded to a new US proposal aimed at ending the war. 'Oil inventories depleting rapidly' The latest update comes after Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told reporters on Monday at the Group of Seven finance leaders meeting in Paris that commercial oil inventories are depleting rapidly and the world only has a few weeks' worth of oil reserves ...

Strait of Hormuz Crisis Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase

The global oil market is now entering a more sensitive phase of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. In the early weeks, headlines focused on barrel prices and attacks on tankers and facilities in the strait. In recent weeks, attention has shifted to whether the United States and Iran are moving closer to a settlement. Now a deeper problem is emerging: a rapid depletion of oil inventories available for consumption and refining, and a widening gap between oil that exists "on paper" and oil that is actually available where it can be used quickly. To understand the risk, it is important to distinguish between total oil inventories and those available for immediate use. "Observed global oil inventories" is a broad term that includes onshore stocks, oil held in tanks, storage terminals, pipelines, and refineries, as well as oil held "afloat," meaning cargoes ...

‘A very good environment for risk assets or an utterly terrible one’: Why the oil shock might have more in store for stocks

Strategists from Ninety One, Charles Stanley and J. Safra Sarasin examine why markets are so buoyant at time of heightened risk. Markets are pricing in both accelerating AI optimism and a potentially serious energy shock, according to investment strategists, creating a growing disconnect between buoyant stocks and an increasingly fragile economic backdrop. Sahil Mahtani, a director at Ninety One's investment institute, thinks financial markets are caught between two very different potential outcomes but investors may not be taking the worse one seriously enough. The strategist said the investment case looked reasonably clear at the start of 2026, with a falling inflation and rising growth macro environment supported by the stability that followed the October summit between US and Chinese leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, and durable capital expenditure themes including AI and rearmament. However, the picture has since become considerably more complicated, following ...

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